2017: the year we get real?

There is no doubt that 2016 has been a tumultuous year.

From Brexit to Trump and the Ukraine to Syria, we have seen many upheavals on the geopolitical front. A lot has happened in Fintech, too, although here the upheaval has in my opinion been almost all positive. Today FinTech is firmly established as one of the biggest sectors in all technology.

What will next year bring?

We can look forward to more tumult I think. If there is one overarching FinTech trend, I would say that several things that were only “potentials” in 2016 will become much more concrete. That could make 2017 the “year of getting real” on a number of fronts.

Here are some of my thoughts.

The year ahead: Predictions for 2017

  • The year of the pilot. 2017 will be the “year of the pilot” for blockchain in financial services, as it moves from proof-of-concept into production. We should see this in particular in cross-border payments and trade finance. Overall however blockchain will still be restricted to the “low hanging fruit” in banking. I remain convinced that broad-based application of DLTs will happen more quickly outside of financial services.
  • The year of the standard. We may see significant progress in blockchain standards during the year. If so, it will be driven by small groups working on specific use cases as opposed to large, complex consortia. Indeed, I expect we will see consolidation in the blockchain consortia area.
  • The year of the platform. On the back of increased standards and interoperability, we should see broad-based platforms and ecosystems continue to emerge, driving banking as a service and the creation of new business models. Look for this particularly in the robo-advisory and lending businesses.
  • The year of the attack. The number of cyber-attacks on organizations will increase significantly, and we can expect a steady stream of revelations about hacks. Denial of service is becoming much more threatening and dangerous for banks and in 2017 banks and others will be called on to toughen their defenses. This will be reflected in cyber-security spends, which among wholesale banks will increase from 5% of total tech budgets to 7-8%.

Eye on the prizes: Trends to watch in 2017

Along with the above “predictions”, here are some of the trends I think worth keeping an eye on in the coming year.

  • PSD2 pushing partnerships between banks and FinTechs. Banks and other financial services players will have to spend 2017 preparing for the implementation of the revised EU payment services directive PSD2 in 2018. With the creation of open banking platforms, there will be opportunities for FinTechs to partner with banks to create more exciting customer experiences and provide increased transparency on performance and fee structures.
  • Competition among financial centers for FinTech innovation. 2016 was the year of regulatory sandboxes with the FCA and MAS Singapore leading the change by establishing themselves as business developers with a mandate to attract business to their respective jurisdictions. In 2017, leading regulators will strengthen their position with global collaboration and implementation of new policies and laws based on learnings from their “sandbox” environments in order to reduce uncertainty in the FinTech ecosystem.
  • The continued rise of smart machines. It’s no secret that there are great strides happening right now in artificial intelligence. Advances in machine learning and robotics will I think continue to sweep the business world. Startups will continue to get funding in the areas of risk assessment, research, investment management, trading and back office automation.
  • An intensified war for talent. Banks and FinTechs will be competing for people with the right skills. The key expertise in financial services will be in artificial intelligence, in particular robotics and machine learning, where the game will be to attract scientists with Masters Degrees and PhDs. There will also be a battle for domain and technicaly expertise in finance, distributed ledger technology, and cyber security.

A new road

Finally, 2016 was a very big year for me personally.

2016 was also the year of the launch of Bussmann Advisory, with the goal of helping companies stay ahead of the digital disruption curve.

The company has gotten off to excellent start, better than I could have imagined. For that I am grateful, to my new clients and all those who have collaborated with me and supported this move.

With that, I would like to wish everyone the best of the season and a happy and healthy new year. It promises to be an interesting one.

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Blockchain in 2017: From proof to pilot

By Oliver Bussmann and Nick Williamson

In September we – Oliver and Nick – published a joint blog post on why we didn’t think blockchain would be disrupting banks first. This caught some by surprise, since not only does blockchain seem predestined to disrupt financial services, but every day seems to bring new developments in this space.

On December 1 we had a chance to clarify our position at the Credits Blockchain and Bourbon fireside chat, where some 80 guests joined us at Level39 to quaff and question us about our views on the future of this tech – as well as share theirs.

We found the event interesting on two counts. One, it gave us a chance to clarify where we think blockchain is going in the immediate future. Second, it was a good sounding board for discussions on some of the larger blockchain trends we think will be of interest during the coming year.

Getting real

 

First, to our “predictions”.

  • From proof to pilot. 2017 will be the “year of the pilot” for blockchain in financial services, as it moves from a proof-of-concept technology into production, especially in the cross-border payment and trade finance areas.
  • From slow to fast. This will move more quickly than expected, and we could reach a “tipping point” over the next 12 months if enough players with enough financial capacity come together, as seems to be the case in several areas at present.
  • A better experience. Players have to prepare for the implementation of the revised EU payment services directive PSD2 in 2018. With the creation of open banking platforms, there will be opportunities for FinTechs to partner with banks to create more exciting customer experiences.
  • Fending off the attack. Cyber-attacks on organizations are on the rise, with denial of service becoming much more threatening and dangerous for banks. 2017 will be a year to strengthen defenses.
  • Banks still lagging. Financial services blockchain implementation will apply to the “low hanging fruit.” We stick with our main thesis that broad-based adoption of blockchains will happen more quickly outside of financial services – in areas like supply chain management, in e-government, or health care.

Racing ahead

 

Besides putting ourselves out on a limb with our concrete predictions for the coming year, we had a chance to discuss some longer-term trends and issues with our guests. Here are a few things we think worth keeping an eye on.

  • Breakthrough constellation. Technological breakthroughs usually happen at that moment when the five or six technologies needed to make a real change become cost-effective and convenient to use. With advances in secure hardware (IoT and smartphones) coupled with the improved algorithms in blockchains, we think the constellation is coming together for Distributed Ledger Technologies (DLT).
  • Race for innovation. In financial services we will see a ramping up of the already intense race between jurisdictions to push FinTech innovation, driven by regulators.
  • Setting the standard. We may see significant progress in blockchain standards during the year. If so, it will be driven by small groups working on specific use cases as opposed to large, complex consortia. We believe that attempts to establish standards before real-world, full-scale applications take off are likely to fail, and that it is always better to derive standards from successful implementations as opposed to the predictions of standards bodies.
  • DLT-enabled financial use cases resemble many of the broader FinTech use cases in that they enable the unbundling of previously combined functions. As FinTech unbundles specific services such as retail FX exchange, we can expect DLTs to be used to unbundle the on-boarding and trust relationships from the end execution in a wide number of sectors.

Great debates

 

One final thought. During the Q&A after our talk the broader societal implications of distributed ledgers was raised several times. The issues, while hardly new, can be thorny. Blockchains, for instance, are sure to intensify discussions about the balance between privacy and security.

We make no predictions here. But if we do start to see large-scale implementations of blockchains during the year, we wonder if these and other broader societal discussions might become more pronounced in government circles and potentially among the general public.

We would certainly welcome that. From the Silk Road to the DAO, DLTs suffer from bad press. As well as being a year of maturation for this technology, it could also be the year we begin to make a better case for it.

That would make for a good year indeed.

 

Why blockchain won’t disrupt banks first

By Oliver Bussmann and Nick Williamson

As two people who have been working closely with blockchain for a while now – Oliver as a FinTech advisor and former Group CIO of UBS, Nick as the CEO and Founder of Credits – we have no doubt about the technology’s potential to radically transform the financial industry.

A far better way to build and maintain interconnected ledgers – the heart of the financial system – it seems predestined for the job.

But while banks and FinTech companies around the world are busy developing blockchain-based solutions, we are likely to see blockchain “go live” in other industries first.

This is something of a paradox, and so we think worth a closer look.

Regulation, regulation, regulation

As Oliver can attest from his own experience, the main drag on implementing innovation in financial services is regulation.

As part of one of the most highly regulated sectors in the world, banks will need to wait for regulatory certainty on any number of issues before they can release blockchain-based platforms. Stringent rules regarding collecting, storing and sharing customer data add layers of rigorous validation, verification and internal signoff on top of the regulatory approval.

Even though many regulators are actively supporting banks in exploring blockchain, this is simply not an environment geared to early adoption in the wild.

The fact that banks are coping with dwindling IT budgets, as well as heavy legacy IT investment, is an obstacle as well. As to an extent are legacy mindsets: The financial industry is heavily invested in centralized models; blockchain represents the opposite worldview.

More fertile ground

We believe blockchain will be implemented first in more lightly regulated sectors, particularly those which face challenges in managing data access control and ensuring data integrity. This can be sensitive personally identifiable information (PII) such as health care records, competitive secrets or other internal corporate data. Or it could be intellectual property, as with managing copyright for music or art.

Areas poised for takeoff include e-government, supply chain management and finance, insurance, real estate and the Internet of Things. BHP Billiton’s announcement last week that it was using blockchain to improve its supply chain processes is a perfect example of how this is already happening.

Useful use cases for all

At Credits, Nick has been observing this trend closely too. The company has been exploring a number of use cases outside of financial services, such as proof of identity, procurement processes, and interdepartmental payments. It recently worked with a client on a corporate identity blockchain solution.

Credits has also been very active in e-government, where blockchain has the potential to inject trust and accountability into many processes. This includes providing means to share sensitive personal data between departments that prevents data leaks while still allowing for data integrity checks.

The good news for banks is that many of the non-financial use cases also provide compelling first customers for the eventual financial ones. If we can solve supply chain management, for example, then we are not far from solving supply chain finance.

So while we may not see distributed ledgers taking over in financial services right away, that shouldn’t be interpreted as meaning it will never happen.

When it comes to blockchain and banks, there is no escaping destiny.

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What will tomorrow’s clients expect from us?

It’s a question I often ask myself.

A transformation is underway in global financial markets, driven by startup firms and disruptive technologies, and investors’ needs are changing too.

The pace of change has been dramatic. When I read that global investment in FinTech ventures tripled to $12bn between 2013 and 2014 (Accenture 2015), it cements my belief that the fintech revolution could be the greatest opportunity the banking industry has ever seen.

We need to be part of this growing ecosystem.

Yes, start-ups have the power to disrupt as they’re quicker, more agile, and less confined by rules, regulation, or legacy technology. But we bring something to the table they don’t have – in-depth understanding of our clients. This is why it’s so vital that startup firms and big banks work together, share ideas and combine their skill sets. It’s how we will maximize the business opportunities in our evolving industry.

With over 150 years of experience and a global reach, UBS has value we can add to the innovative process. How do we scale our ideas? Are we delivering what clients really want? Are we exceeding their expectations? The technology can be built and proven, but start-ups will still need to ask themselves these questions. We explore some of these issues and more in our new Life’s Questions series.

So how do we go about collaborating with these new and fast-growing firms?

It starts with making sure we’re part of the conversation. That’s why we were the first bank to establish a presence in Canary Wharf’s Level39, home to over 170 startups, and why we have established an innovation presence globally.

At Level39, we’ve created an innovation lab, a unique platform from which to explore emerging technologies such as cryptocurrencies and the tools that power them, such as blockchain. How will revolutionary ideas like these impact financial services in the future? We want to play a role in how these solutions develop.

Our specialists act as mentors to entrepreneurs, giving them a sounding board to help them answer the big questions facing their businesses, from regulatory issues to the best way to handle the next stage of expansion. We know expanding a business can be daunting, so our new brand campaign focuses on how UBS can help company founders get over the hurdles to growth.

But that’s not all we do. Another new initiative helps us find the innovators of the future namely our Future of Finance Challenge, a global competition to find fintech startups with potentially disruptive technological ideas and solutions that could reshape our industry. We’re looking forward to revealing the winners of this competition following the regional finals in November.

As well as tapping into the wider FinTech community, we know how important it is to make sure our own house is in order. So we have been investing heavily into new technologies within the UBS group.

Extensive market research is helping us to understand what tomorrow’s clients will expect from us, and we are building a state-of-the-art IT structure which will help us to deliver it.

As the world’s largest wealth manager, we want to stay at the forefront of thought leadership, whether in technology, services or products.

FinTech innovation is reshaping the landscape of financial services, and we’re excited to be part of that ecosystem

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